Haryana fallout: The game has now changed in Jharkhand and Maharashtra

The Election Commission of India has blown the poll bugle for Maharashtra and Jharkhand. With scores tied 1-1 for the National Democratic Alliance and the INDIA bloc in the semifinals — recently concluded Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir Assembly polls — the finals promise to be a cracker of a contest. The Lok Sabha results favour the Maha Vikas Aghadi in Maharashtra. However, the Bharatiya Janata Party winning Haryana against all odds has thrown the elections wide open.
Maharashtra is a big state that sends 48 Members of Parliament to the Lok Sabha and houses India’s financial capital Mumbai. Hence, these elections will be keenly watched. Maharashtra saw big political upheavals in the last five years with two regional parties splitting. Jharkhand, too, witnessed intense drama with Chief Minister Hemant Soren’s arrest by the Enforcement Directorate.
In the first election following these schisms — the 2024 Lok Sabha polls — the MVA/INDIA bloc (the Congress, the Shiv Sena-Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray, and the Nationalist Congress Party-Sharadchandra Pawar) won 30 of the 48 seats on offer. The Mahayuti Alliance/NDA (the BJP, the Shiv Sena-Eknath Shinde, the Nationalist Congress Party-Ajit Pawar) won only 17, a loss of 24 seats for the NDA compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Analysts interpreted this as a rejection of the BJP’s jod-tod politics.

Regions where major parties have strong influence in Maharashtra.

The Mahayuti, recognising it is on the back foot, has since taken many populist decisions like providing Rs 1,500 income support to women (Ladki Bahin Yojana), raising the creamy layer bar for Other Backward Classes, granting constitutional status to the State Scheduled Caste Commission, and waiving toll for entry into Mumbai. The alliance is banking on these decisions to neutralise anti-incumbency and discontent amongst voters visible during the general elections.
In Jharkhand, the NDA (the BJP and the All Jharkhand Students Union) won nine seats. Meanwhile, the INDIA bloc (the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, the Congress, the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Communist Party of India-Marxist, and the Communist Party of India-Marxist Leninist) won five seats, a gain of two seats. The INDIA bloc won all five reserved seats for Scheduled Tribes. During the Lok Sabha polls, Hemant Soren’s being behind bars evoked sympathy amongst ST voters, leading to a sweep of the reserved seats. The JMM-led government is also banking on its Maiyya Samman Yojana, under which, support was increased from Rs 1,000 to Rs 1,500 per month just before the enforcement of the Model Code of Conduct.
The INDIA bloc was confident about its chances in both states. However, the Haryana results may have shaken the confidence of MVA leaders in Maharashtra and INDIA bloc leaders in Jharkhand.
Impact of Haryana results
1. Finalising seat-sharing talks
Both the MVA and the Mahayuti have yet to announce their seat-sharing formula in Maharashtra as the number of parties in both, the NDA and the INDIA bloc, has increased from two to three. In the 2019 Assembly polls, the BJP contested 164 seats and ally Shiv Sena 126.
The Haryana results have given the BJP an edge to bargain hard with allies and retain most of the seats it contested in 2019. However, this leaves only 120 odd seats for the Shiv Sena (Shinde) and the NCP (Ajit Pawar). Both parties are used to contesting around 120 seats on their own.
The ⁠Congress contested 147 seats in 2019 with ally NCP contesting 121. Since then, the NCP split and the Sharad Pawar faction is still in the alliance. The Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction) is also now part of the alliance. The Congress was posturing to fight in 115-120 seats, the remaining 160 splits between the NCP(SP) and Shiv Sena (UBT). However, allies have been demanding a third of the seats each and the Congress’ loss in Haryana has weakened its party bargaining power.
In Jharkhand, seat-sharing is comparatively easier than in Maharashtra as there are clear leaders: the BJP in the NDA, and the JMM in the INDIA bloc. The BJP could struggle with keeping everyone happy as the Janata Dal (United), the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) and the Lok Janshakti Party have to be allocated seats. The Congress was trying to bargain for more seats after its Lok Sabha performance, but after the Haryana loss, it should be pragmatic about these expectations.
2. Firming up alliances
The Haryana election results show that smaller parties, independent candidates, and the Aam Aadmi Party damaged the Congress’ prospects in many seats. In Maharashtra, Others have had a strong track record, bagging an average of a quarter of the vote share in the past five elections, and around 30 seats. In Jharkhand as well, smaller parties and independent candidates scored above 30 per cent of the vote share and played a key role in government formation in 2005 and 2009.

Role of smaller parties in both the states.

Both alliances grappling with the issue of seat-sharing need to accommodate smaller parties like the Aam Aadmi Party, the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi, the Revolutionary Socialist Party, and the Peasants and Workers Party of India. Around 20 MLAs support the Mahayuti. It remains to be seen how they are accommodated and from whose quota.
The MVA needs to bring on board parties like SP to prevent the split of Muslim votes. Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi has already decided to go solo and will split the Scheduled Caste votes. A united Opposition is the need of the hour in Maharashtra.
3. Focusing on regional strategies and narratives
Haryana showed us how a pan-state narrative didn’t work for the Congress party. Different regions like Ambala, Hisar, Rohtak, Karnal, Gurugram, and Faridabad have different demographics, castes, religious, and socio-political dynamics. Thus, regional narratives and strategies will have to be built by parties, making the elections highly localised.
Maharashtra, in many ways, is six state elections in one. It has more than three times the seats in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir. Its six regions, Vidarbha, North, Western, Marathwada, Mumbai, and Thane-Konkan, are as different as chalk and cheese. Vidarbha is a BJP versus Congress fight. Mumbai/Thane-Konkan is a stronghold of the Thackerays. Western Maharashtra is a stronghold of Pawars. Marathwada, which used to be a strong area for the BJP and the Shiv Sena, is witnessing a Maratha movement for reservations/inclusion in the OBC list.

Seat tally in 2019 Jharkhand Assembly elections.

In Vidarbha, Western Maharashtra, and Marathwada, the MVA beat the Mahayuti convincingly. They were leading by 48 Assembly segments against the Mahayuti in these zones. While the MVA led in 153 Assembly segments, the Mahayuti led in 126 in the 2024 general elections. The MVA is raising issues of agricultural distress in Vidarbha and backing the Maratha reservation movement in Marathwada. In urban areas (45 per cent of the state’s population), the BJP is banking on development work carried out in the state, including infrastructure projects.
In Jharkhand, the JMM-Congress alliance swept the Kolhan region, winning 13 of the 14 seats, and the Santhal Pargana region, winning 13 of the 18 seats. These two regions have a heavy ST population and account for 16 of the 28 ST reserved seats. The entire lead of the JMM-Congress alliance against the BJP came from these two regions. The BJP has been bolstered by the inclusion of ex-CM Champai Soren in the Kolhan region. In Santhal Pargana, it is banking on the narrative of change in demographics in the zone due to alleged “infiltration”.
4. ⁠Being wary of reverse consolidation
In Haryana, there’s a general perception that the contest somehow became Jat versus non-Jat, and there was a silent consolidation of OBCs and upper castes in favour of the BJP. This shows that there is a need to take all castes and communities along and be wary of playing one caste against another. The JMM-Congress alliance has to be wary of a possible reverse consolidation in Jharkhand of ST votes. In Maharashtra, OBCs are up in arms against the demands made by the Marathas.
Both Jharkhand and Maharashtra are going to be very localised seat-by-seat elections, and pollsters are going to have a tough day ahead.